Sundays and Thursdays are extra special days. On these mornings, I can wake, flip on my laptop, tune into the NYTimes online for my daily dose, and see Nicholas Kristof's op-ed pieces. Today's was, as usual, insightful and excellent. I fear for his inevitable book leave, but by then, Thomas Friedman should be back from his seemingly-never-ending hiatus.
Kristof delves into climate change and the trickle down effect. As usual, it is not those spewing the emmissions that are most severly effected, (though I have heard horrendous accounts of the air quality in industrial China), it is the poorest, the most voiceless citizens of the planet. I have recently read his book on the topic, and Paul Collier is also cited by Kristof for the role of climate change and the increased risk of civil war and coups. This is one of the traps of poverty-the conflict trap. To be blunt, it is much easier to fall into the trap than to get out; and once in the trap, it is exceedingly difficult, fragile, and costly to work your way into a situation of stable governance. Kristof cites:
'Paul Collier, an Oxford University expert on global poverty, found that economic stagnation in poor countries leads to a rising risk of civil war. Professor Collier warns that climate change is likely to reduce rainfall in southern Africa enough that corn will no longer be a viable crop there. Since corn is a major form of sustenance in that region, the result may be catastrophic food shortages — and civil conflict.
His research suggests that a drought one year increases by 50 percent the risk that an African country will slip into civil war the next year. '
FIFTY PERCENT INCREASE! Factor in the destabalizing effects on an entire region when one country slips into civil war; the collateral damage is usually as bad as the actual conflict; refugees are thrust, fragile economies destroyed, barely laid infrastructure ruined, and trust in positive government, something so rare and fragile, demolished. As usual, its the poorest, the ones with no voice (or the smallest delegations at the WTO conferences) who are the most affected by the policies of the rich, industrial nations. Some of my thoughts (in beta):
1. Action on climate change from the United States, China, and India.
2. Forward-looking crop diversification and agricultural investments to steer soon-to-be-affected countries and regions away from maize and water intensive crops
3. Economic investment in social sectors of these same countries needs to be massively ramped up; intellectual diversification from subsistence farming is critical
